Forrester Recommends Caution with LBS

According to a Forrester of study US Online adults, only 4% have ever used location based applications. The report has some very interesting data [although the definition of Location Based Social Networks is mired in ambiguity. Content based location networks like Yelp and Where seem to be excluded.]. The predominantly male audience is talked about as an influencer, but also as a “drop in the bucket” compared to the effectiveness of the audience that interacts with SMS, mobile search and display media on WAP sites.

Two things bother me. First, Forrester is late to the party and just knocked over my lamp and let my out my cat. Second is the recommendation in the report called Location Based Social Networks Show a Hint of Mobile Engagement, which you can buy here.

“Forrester recommends that bold, male-targeted marketers start testing but that most marketers should wait until they can get a bigger bang for their buck, when adoption rates increase and established players emerge from the fray.”

– quoted from the report abstract.

forrester_logo

Conversations and Engagement, Not Impressions and CTR

Since when is social media all about impressions? As someone who constantly encourages clients and prospects to think about the quality of their social media audience before the quantity, I find this recommendation to be rooted in paid media type thinking. This is earned media. We need to switch lenses and look at the audience again.

A Smaller, Yet More Engaged Audience of Influencers

The good news is that while the audience is small compare to Facebook users or Google users, it is growing very rapidly. This audience is also willing to activate. We know that they will fill their social graphs with checkins, offers, badges and other surprises. Their mean household income is $25,500 more than the average US online household, so in theory they have more spending power (assuming they are not concentrated in higher cost of living areas). They rely on their phones for information. They are 24% more likely to look to their phone before they make a purchase, 24% more likely to want to receive a relevant (text) message from a business, 23% more likely to use their phone to participate in a sweepstakes or contest and 22% more likely to text for a coupon or discount. In other words, these people are a marketer’s dream.

This is cutting edge stuff with a ton of potential. We have only seen small pockets of fully integrated campaigns (like USA Today) that uses paid media to drive people to a LBS app to spurn adoption and engage with the brand. Most of the growth is organic, through PR and events. It is still very new stuff and the fact that there are so many large and small vendors in the space is a detriment to more widespread adoption because there is still no de facto standard for checkins, although I think Foursquare has a shot at being it if they keep up their pace and continue to innovate and appeal to and keep the interest of people who are always hungry for more.

I understand that Forrester is a group of analysts and that they need to use their data to make what they feel is the best recommendation for their clientele, but given how smart they are, I would think there would be some suggestions on how to further the industry in the report. They themselves begin the article by calling the industry “nascent”, which is a perfect word, but what about loyalty (their example is Starbucks and a “startup LBSN”, what?)? White labeling opportunities? Contextual recommendations? Usefulness of checkin data? Where’s the future?

The thinking of these platforms is very “What’s next?”. Forrester’s, in this instance, “What’s now?”. My recommendation is to test into these platforms, collect and analyze data on your influencers and engage heavily with those who are engaging with you.

  • Rab
    Here's another take on this. We have to stop looking at LBS as another channel or another tool. It's not about technology. It's about building relationships. LBS is just another - albeit significant - dimension of the social web. It's not a matter of "if or how LBS is going to provide value" or not, it's already here. It's a behavior. The social web isn't a feature. So you have to ask yourself, how are you going to handle it as a business and a user. I was reminded of this when reading this article by Google's Social UX Lead today and how he breaks down what is broken with Facebook in it's current use case. Check it out, it's good: http://bit.ly/c17AML
  • Rab
    Schneidermike, I'm 100% with you on this. Lead the way or risk being left behind. Nokia and Google stood on the stage at Web2.0 Expo in spring 2008 and proclaimed the next thing is Location + Mobile. Let me repeat: 2008. I think location-based services are a great way to differentiate, innovate and add value in the current "me-too" social media world. I also agree that LBS represent a huge opportunity to engage with customers on their terms in real way that is frankly becoming less common on Facebook and twitter. LBS, if done right, is a new avenue to be relevant and authentic in social media engagement. I honestly think the ROI for LBS can be measured in line with more traditional metrics because the context is more tangible and specific with regard to PR, CRM and events. There is a huge opportunity here all around.
  • I commented on the Forrester post here: http://bit.ly/cFoUSU - basically saying that one of the things getting lost in all of this is the value of brands understanding how their consumers, and consumers generally, are/will be using these technologies. It's generally accepted that location will be a feature of most platforms by the end of the year. It's important for brands to understand what dynamic that will bring to their relationship with consumers. We've been preaching the value of experimentation and moving into these technologies slowly. LBS is yet another tree in the forrest that should be studied. For brands that are happy to sit back and wait for someone else to take the first step to understand how their customers are using these tools, they should wait. For those who can balance any perceived risk with the value of understanding how their brand fits in this third dimension of social media, then now is a good time to experiment. And, experiment now before the cost of that education increases. @bradmays
  • Gentlemen, you disappoint me. Gowhrrlsquareloopvngritude is the new twitter. The space is malleable. It is up to us and our brands to define the space, not sit on the sidelines.
  • Our data from earlier this year was quite similar to Forrester's (we hadn't rounded regular LBS users "up" to 1% yet :) ) but I think our conclusion was slightly different: http://brandsavant.com/the-big...
  • Mike, I agree with you that there is huge potential but slow adoption is what is causing advertisers to say, "let's watch a bit before diving in." With all the new communication channels that have emerged from social networks companies cannot just pour money into everyone that shows future potential without getting burned from time to time. I agree that those that understand the potential are very savvy and influencial buyers but what is their real reach with an LBS tweet or post? I've even found that I'm tired of checking in all the time without some reward or ROI for my personal time. Early adopters and innovators will always be the beta testers but without some value beyond it's the latest social media fad, the new car smell wears away quickly.
  • What can a business do aside from offering a treat to mayors or discounts for a check-in that will have a real impact? I know you checked-in at the local Golden Corral and won a huge meal discount (or something similar). They also offered up a free iPad to a random person who checked-in.

    -Will you keep going to the Corral after your discount is over? And even if you do, did the business add to their ROI thru the LBS tactics?

    -Would they have done better just running a localized banner ad campaign via adwords and then collecting names when people came into the store?
  • Good point Dan. With Golden Corral I was already a regular customer. By winning free meals for approx 90 days I may have visited more frequently and I did bring people there to eat that dropped money there. So to answer your question yes I will continue to eat there, LBS did not change my attitude towards the food. Now I did get to know the general manager and created a new relationship because of the promotion. Maybe I'll be a more frequent visitor to see the manager and maintain the relationship. Plus they have a kids night on Tuesdays and my kids love eating there!
  • Dan, I am working on a post based on Location and Loyalty with Anne Mai Bertelsen. I cannot wait to show you.
  • -How many businesses have no idea that so many people check into the location via one of these apps? I'd bet it is a high number. I check-in, but have never received any discount or value from doing so. I have won 2 contests using TriOut, but both had nothing to do with an actual location. I won just for checking in the most using the app.

    -There are a TON of LBS apps. I think we will see one emerge as the "Google" of LBS (4square) and then a couple of others as the BING (gowalla) and YAHOO! (Yelp?).

    -Like The Chelvis said, "Earned media still needs to have a solid ROI" and until and LBS app can show that it can give a business a decent one on a consistent basis. It will primary be used as an experiment.
  • Another huge issue is that the locations are user created. I constantly edit duplicates on Gowalla and Foursquare. In order to really make LBS work, the services need to create some sort of feature that limits creation without searching for the location first.
  • Rab
    Brightkite has this feature already with their Google integration and they were first to recognize this. I've wondered why the other 2 haven't figured this out.
  • I think it's a hot space, no doubt. Marketing conversations that happen within an appropriate context (read: Relevant) usually lead to much better ROI - so I think that tapping in to location based services is definitely in the future of marketing.

    I do agree that the lack of standards and relatively low adoption rate mean that it's something that only a few marketers have the luxury of playing with right now. The bigger question is how long it's going to be before there are better tools and information about how marketers can easily and *effectively* leverage these networks.

    I'm taking a bit of a wait and see here...
  • Michael, I tend to agree with you when I decide to wear my LBS is the future hat.

    But like most reports from Forrester, they owe it to the industry to be conservative in their outlook. Are the possibilities mind-blowing? Absolutely. Is the rate of adoption face melting? Debatable. But what isn't debatable is that we don't know how long engagement within these networks will last. Hell, Facebook practically owns the world and I still cant get behind recommending some initiatives for my clients.

    Earned media still needs to have a solid ROI. Marketers and their stakeholders will always default to impressions and CTR as their metric of choice because its less risky//more sterile.

    I think that LBS will find a real marketing case in the future. But if you think Forrester missed the boat on this one you need to go spin your totem, cause you be dreaming.
  • I haven't seen Inception yet, but thanks for the spoiler. Looks like I got 2 Gregs on this comment. Are you Data? Lore? B4? Pick one*.

    i know your company is rooted in ROI and every campaign that you do is deeply rooted in analytics. The web is largely stable and mature, but this is mobile. It is still a new frontier and testing is pretty inexpensive.

    Getting brands involved with a ridiculously engaged audience will further the cause and they will see benefit by engaging with this audience. We will have more data to analyze and as more cases emerge, the real benefits of location will be discovered and consolidation will happen (Forrester agrees here). Eventually, we will develop standards for capturing the data behind applications just like we do on the web. Yes. There will be a "Google Analytics" for mobile.

    Mobile is a world without the constraints of the web. It's the wild wild west. Do they have totems there? If so, I will gladly spin away. (whatever that means)


    *Star Trek the Next Generation. Lore is Data's evil twin. B4 is Data's stupid twin.
  • Your last sentence sums it up. "this report to be quite basic and lacking in takeaways for the vendors." agreed!
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